Experience Base – Nuclear Power Plant Fire Risk Analysis

Dr. Kazarians is an internationally recognized expert in the probabilistic analysis of fire risk for nuclear power facilities. Starting from early 1975, when at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Dr. Kazarians participated in research projects where a comprehensive methodology for fire risk assessment, and fire event databases, were developed. Since then, Dr. Kazarians has made significant contributions to a large number of major risk assessment projects for nuclear power plants in the United States, Europe, Japan, and Russia.

The methodology for fire risk assessment for nuclear power plants centers on fires inside compartments, and on the behavior of various types of equipment under heat and other fire induced environments. The following is a list of projects for which Dr. Kazarians has made a significant contribution:

• He assisted Sandia National Laboratories on a project for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in reviewing significant fire incidents in nuclear power plants worldwide to glean insights regarding fire PRA methodology and data. Twenty-five fire incidents were reviewed; and information, not widely known to fire PRA experts, was analyzed.
• He assisted Sandia National Laboratories on a project for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in conducting a risk significance analysis of Appendix R exemptions for a number of nuclear power plants. The Independent Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE) submittals of those plants were used to assess the risk significance of the exemptions.
• For a Swiss government funded risk assessment project, he assisted a team of Russian scientists in conducting the fire and flood risk assessment of a WWER-1000 nuclear power plant. The project included a detailed plant walkdown, data analysis and methods development.
• For the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, he provided an in-depth technical review of the fire analysis portion of the IPEEEs submitted by the licensees. This included a thorough review of the submittal for use of proper methodology, proper data, consistency of the results with industry experience, and traceability of the results back to the basic information. Has provided the NRC with expert opinion on acceptable methodologies and data for fire risk analysis.
• He was the principal investigator of the first fire risk analysis that was done in support of a probabilistic risk assessment of the Indian Point (Units 2 and 3) nuclear power plants. Fire risk analysis methodologies in use today draw their origin from this study. In this study, fire was found to be a significant contributor to the overall plant risk. Several plant modifications were suggested to reduce that contribution, which led to a re-analysis of the fire risk, assuming the implementation of the modifications. This study established the statistical models and other methodological approaches that has since been the industry standard. The methodology was later improved on in the Seabrook fire analysis, which was also conducted under the leadership of Dr. Kazarians.
• Coauthor of IAEA’s guidelines on treatment of fires in probabilistic safety assessment for nuclear power plants. (Work in progress.)
• He was the principal investigator of an ongoing fire data collection and analysis effort at PLG, Inc. He developed the statistical models for data analysis and a Bayesian update based on new data. This data has been used in several fire risk analyses. This model established the modeling methodology—based on equipment in specific building types and compartment types—that is now widely used as a standard methodology in the industry.
• He participated in the IAEA IPERS review project for PRAs prepared for European nuclear power plants.
• He has developed or participated in short courses on nuclear power plant risk assessment. For example, he has conducted a two-day training session on nuclear power plant fire risk analysis for the Eastern Block countries in Russia, Spain, and England.